By: Anthony Kimery
Since Homeland Security Today first reported Dec.
13 that senior US counterterrorism (CT) officials were becoming
increasingly concerned that Al Qaeda in Syria could acquire Syrian WMDs,
and that the Pentagon had drawn up military contingencies in the event
that they do, these same officials said they're more alarmed now than
they were "just a few weeks ago" because of the significant strides
jihadist forces dominating “front line fighting” in Syria have made.
"That could put them in position … to overtake important [Syrian]
chemical weapons sites, even manufacturing facilities," as one of the
officials emphasized.
In a Dec. 16 report, the Washington Post
confirmed that “US officials are increasingly worried that Syria’s WMDs
could fall into the hands of Islamist extremists, rogue generals or
other uncontrollable factions.”
The Post further confirmed that “defense
officials … have been updating their contingency plans in recent weeks”
for dealing with terrorists acquiring Syrian WMDs.
Meanwhile, Syria's ambassador to the UN, Bashar Al
Jafair, warned in a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon that
rebel forces could indeed get control of chemical weapons.
But at a Dec. 18 press briefing, US State Department
spokeswoman Victoria Nuland called the claims “garbage.” The Syrian
government, she said, has “a responsibility not only not to use them,
but to keep them safe and secure. As you know, for more than a decade,
we’ve been trying to convince Syria to eradicate these weapons, to get
rid of them altogether. They have not done that. They bear
responsibility for keeping them safe and secure.”
“So any effort to abrogate that responsibility,”
Nuland continued, “any effort to shift it onto others is just further to
the kind of garbage that we’ve seen from the regime.”
Nuland said the US and other countries have been
“extremely vigilant” in keeping an eye on Syrian WMD locations, adding,
“I’m obviously not going to get into the details of our discussions with
partners, but I think we have said for some weeks here that we are
working very closely with a number of allies and partners in the
international community to ensure that we are able to do what’s
necessary should the regime make the wrong choice, should the regime
lose control, et cetera.”
Despite Nuland’s assurances, Russian, Israeli and
other officials have continued to express alarm that Al Qaeda or aligned
jihadist forces battling the Assad regime could get their hands on WMD
weapons or the materials to manufacture them. Al Qaeda-linked insurgents
battling Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s regime have already overrun
several sites where chemical -- and perhaps other WMDs -- are believed
to be located.
Earlier this month, the Syrian-Saudi Chemicals
Company (SYSACCO) factory near Safira that manufactures chlorine and
other toxic chemicals was taken over by the Al Qaeda franchise, Al Nusra
Front, that reportedly is responsible for “the heaviest frontline
fighting” in Syria.
Al Qaeda-tied rebels overran the Sheik Suleiman
military base near Aleppo where research on chemical weapons had been
conducted, and opposition Islamist forces have made inroads on a Syrian
military base near Aleppo where chemical weapons are believed to have
been produced.
According to the Post’s report, “A former
Syrian general who once led the army’s chemical weapons training program
said that the main storage sites for mustard gas and nerve agents are
supposed to be guarded by thousands of Syrian troops, but that they
would be easily overrun.”
Retired Syrian Maj. Gen. Adnan Silou, who defected
to opposition forces in June, said “Probably anyone from the Free Syrian
Army or any Islamic extremist group could take them over,” the Post reported.
Because of the deteriorating situation on the ground
in Syria, “Al Qaeda understands it has a unique opportunity” to take
advantage of the chaos to try to get hold of Syrian WMDs,” one of the
senior US counterterrorism officials told Homeland Security Today
for its Dec. 13 report, ominously adding, “in fact, Al Qaeda may be as
close as it’s ever been to getting hold of chemical weapons.”
The Post later reported that “As the Syrian
opposition steadily makes territorial gains, US officials and analysts
said the odds are increasing that insurgents will seize control of a
chemical weapons site or that Syrian troops guarding the installations
will simply abandon their posts.”
"It's almost inevitable -- It may have already happened, for what we know,” retired Army officer Michael Eisenstadt told the Post.
Eisenstadt served for 26 years as an officer in the US Army Reserve and
is a senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military
and Security Studies Program where he is a specialist in Persian Gulf
and Arab-Israeli security affairs. He has extensive experience in the
Middle East.
Perhaps easier to capture though are some of the
more than dozen mobile chemical weapons labs that a Syrian military
defector reportedly told US counterterrorism intelligence and WMD
officials have been fielded by the Syrian military. The truck-mounted
labs allegedly are capable of mixing “binary” chemicals to produce
lethal weapons.
The situation in Syria "may be the first time the
international community faces the possibility of a civil war in a state
with a known stockpile of chemical weapons,” warned a Congressional
Research Service (CRS) report delivered to lawmakers earlier this month.
Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov
said “The greatest danger is that parts of Syria continue to fall under
the control of the opposition where extremists, terrorists and Al Qaeda
have strong positions.” And “That could have very serious consequences,”
RIA Novosti reported.
“Everyone is afraid of that, including our American
partners,” Bogdanov was quoted as saying, noting that rebel factions
have already gained control of some Syrian military arsenals. And that
could also happen to chemical weapon stockpiles, Bogdanov said, pointing
out that “This has already happened in Aleppo with the seizure of a
plant manufacturing chemical components that can be used for terrorist
purposes.”
“The opposition’s victory, regrettably, cannot be ruled out,” Bogdanov told a Kremlin advisory body, according to Interfax.
“We need to face the truth. A current tendency is that the regime and
the government keep losing control over an ever-growing territory.”
"I think the regime in Damascus is approaching
collapse. I think now it's only a question of time," NATO
Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in Brussels, Belgium,
during a news conference with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
On Nov. 14, the day after Homeland Security Today
first reported that the Defense Department had hurried contingency
plans to deal with terrorists acquiring Syrian WMDs, Defense Secretary
Leon Panetta acknowledged that defense officials had developed
preparations for responding to Assad’s regime losing control of WMD
stockpiles. However, he declined to discuss specifics about the
Pentagon’s plans.
President Barak Obama had asserted during an Aug. 20
press conference that "We cannot have a situation where chemical or
biological weapons are falling into the hands of the wrong people,”
adding it would be "a red line for us, and ... there would be enormous
consequences if we start seeing movement on the chemical weapons front
…”
In recent weeks, the US, Israel and United Kingdom
have deployed covert intelligence assets and special operations forces
to monitor Syrian WMD sites in preparation for potential intervention
should it appear imminent that a site will be overrun by jihadist or Al
Qaeda forces who are on the front lines of the battle against Assad’s
military.
Thomas Pierret, Lecturer in Contemporary Islam and
an Islamic and Middle Eastern studies specialist at the University of
Edinburgh, has said "Radical Islamists are very visible [in Syria], and
that “They always fight on the front line because they're seeking
martyrdom. For that reason, other groups often ask them to spearhead
attacks.”
Counterterrorism officials said there is ample
intelligence to indicate that Al Qaeda and "like-minded" jihadists are
indeed at the front lines in Syria.
Consequently, these CT officials told Homeland Security Today,
Al Qaeda and aligned Islamist jihadist forces on the front lines of the
effort to topple Assad’s regime “are well situated to be the first to
overtake [Syrian] WMD sites,” as one said.
On Wednesday, Israeli Air Force chief, Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel, was quoted by Ynetnews.com
saying, "We are prepared to deal with” Syria’s WMDs coming under the
control of Islamist extremists. “This is an issue for the country's
decision makers. We are providing the relevant capabilities, so that if
it is decided to use them, we will know how to.”
Earlier this month, Arutz Sheva reported that
Israeli Lt. Col. (Res.) Mordechai Kedar, a 25-year military
intelligence veteran, had said the Israeli military is actively taking
measures to be able to respond to any threat posed by Syria's WMDs.
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